บทคัดย่อ (ABSTRACT)

Searching for Simplified Farmersโ€™ Crop Choice Models for Integrated Watershed Management in Thailand: A data mining approac

บทคัดย่อ (ABSTRACT)
This study used the C4.5 data mining algorithm to model farmersโ€™ crop choice in two watersheds in Thailand. Previous attempts in the Integrated Water Resource Assessment and Management Project to model farmersโ€™ crop choice produced large sets of decision rules. In order to produce simplified models of farmersโ€™ crop choice, data mining operations were applied for each soil series in the study areas. The resulting decision trees were much smaller in size. Land type, water availability, tenure, capital, labor availability as well as non-farm and livestock income were found to be important considerations in farmersโ€™ decision models. Profitability was also found important although it was represented in approximate ranges. Unlike the general wisdom on farmersโ€™ crop choice, these decision trees came with threshold values and sequential order of the important variables. The decision trees were validated using the remaining unused set of data, and their accuracy in predicting farmersโ€™ decisions was around of their simple structure, the decision trees produced in this study could be useful to analysts of water resource management as they can be integrated with biophysical models for sustainable watershed management.